There are only three things that can be celebrated at the conclusion of one year of a war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine.
*Russia has failed to achieve its aims.
*The people of Ukraine are valiant and resourceful.
*Zelensky is a leader of huge stature and strength.
There are three things that can be lamented.
*NATO has given Ukraine only token support.
*Russia will not withdraw its Army from Ukraine.
*The armament industries of the world are making huge profits and will do all they can to keep the war going.
A number of facts cannot be ignored.
*Putin believes that, by fact of history, Ukraine is a fundamental part of Russia. Indeed, he denies their existence. Most Russians agree with him even though they don’t want to die in battle for it.
*Even though the war has gone badly for Putin, his internal political power inside Russia has grown considerably for a wide range of reasons.
*Putin knows that, despite the strong rhetoric of Biden and his Allies, there is a limit to the support that western nations will give Ukraine while he continues to threaten nuclear retaliation. He will stay in the battlefield long enough to drive them to this limit. He believes that it is a goal that will be reached when the United States elects a right wing Republican President in 2024.
*Zelensky and the people of Ukraine will fight with enormous passion to the very end of their endurance, at which point their future will be grim.
*The death of Putin will alter nothing. His government is full of zealots who will continue the battle. Bear in mind that this regime has spent years shooting down airliners, poisoning dissidents, interfering in foreign elections and hacking the internet. Ukraine is just part of a long term restoration plan.
*A majority of the people of Russia, once communist, have now moved over to the nationalistic right in large and growing numbers.
*Their zeal to restore Russia to its former glory will not cease until they resume control of every nation that was once part of the Soviet Union.
All of my comments are bleak, but factual and undeniable.
The so called western nations have hugely underestimated Russia. Even if Russia loses this current war with Ukraine, they will rebuild their military capacity and try agin in a few short years.
With all my heart and soul, on the first anniversary of this horrible war, I convey my warmest good wishes to Zelensky and the courageous people of Ukraine.
I fervently hope my predictions of the Russian strategy are proven wrong.
At a very minimum, I hope that the millions of refugees who have fled from Ukraine to seek shelter in the nations of the European Union will be able to return to their homeland at some point in the near future.