Donald Trump ran the smartest, most unorthodox election campaign I have ever seen and he won an astonishing victory.
Hillary Clinton did the exact opposite. Her campaign was a stunning disaster that totally lacked political nous or any understanding of voter sensitivity.
Pollsters were discredited forever.
The sun came up yet again the next morning.
There will be another Presidential Election in four years.
In the meantime, we will survive.
So, with positive minds, let’s have a look at what happened and talk about what we do next.
Never in my life have I seen a Presidential Candidate with such an incredible capacity to get on the front pages every day without fail and say outrageous things people will never forget.
Not once have I seen such an infamously rabid and rude capitalist with no evident compassion for others suddenly transform himself into the friend and saviour of the downtrodden, doing it is such a way that they actually believed him.
Even more incredible is the way he was able, time and time again, to overcome dreadful black marks on his character (such as being proven to be a sexual predator on multiple occasions) yet rise in the polls the next day and stay there.
Some months back, I wrote articles and made radio broadcasts saying he would win, even though I hoped he wouldn’t. I based my argument on the belief that Clinton was doing everything she could to lose as she made blunder after blunder.
The fragility of her campaign was revealed in the Primaries. She lost 26 states to Bernie Sanders and, in all 50 states, he won 80% of the under 30’s vote even though he was a 72 year old socialist. Most of those young people stayed at home last week.
They would have come out to vote had she appointed Elizabeth Warren as her running mate. Warren espoused the same policies as Sanders. A dual female ticket would have been a glamour team, but Clinton picked a dull white male who had no capacity to help her.
Then, she called Trump supporters DEPLORABLES, as dumb a political comment as I have ever heard. It become a status symbol to declare you had joined the Deplorables.
All the way, the pollsters told her she would win and she believed them, taking her foot off the pedal, even though they had been badly wrong over Brexit (another revolt by the ordinary guys).
Over and above all of this, she was the shining beacon of the Establishment, a governing elite that middle class America despised. Over and over again, Trump declared them to be corrupt and out of touch, which they were. He said he would ‘drain the swamp’ but never ever said what he would do next.
When Hillary lost, many declared it to have been the result of gross misogyny. It was in part, but the inescapable fact is that 53% of white women voted for Trump.
So, what sort of President will Trump be? No one knows. Neither does he.
If he honours his promise to rebuild America’s ailing infrastructure, a necessity that is glaringly long overdue, that will create millions of jobs. Australia should do likewise.
But, if he goes ahead with tax cuts, he will repeat the disastrous error made by Ronald Reagan. His cuts created a lot of wealthy people, but none of that wealth trickled down to the poor and America’s national debt rose astronomically.
We have no option but to wait and see, ever prepared to react sensibly and without panic no matter what happens.
In the meantime, there are lessons for Australia from the Trump Triumph.
Voter backlash here has been growing steadily, as revealed in the return of Hanson and the rise of Xenophon. It will now be energised enormously by Trump having shown them that they can win.
In the 2017 State Elections in WA and Queensland, the major parties will be decimated because they are seemingly oblivious to the obvious danger that assails them. More worryingly, they give the appearance of being incapable of doing anything about it.
I do hope that the good guys in the main parties survive as there are some standouts who are well worth keeping. No one will weep for the remainder.
I am going to plan my future in a way that will enable me to survive independently even if governments do nothing for me.
As an old guy, I intend to devote a lot of time forming partnerships with the young as the future will be based on combining wisdom with enthusiasm and tech-savvy to advance society despite whatever politicians may do to us.
We can be assured that sometime soon the political landscape will be transformed by the arrival of a new wave of Abraham Lincolns.
It could well start with Michelle Obama in 2020.
Yours at Large
Everald Compton
If you would like to buy my book ‘THE MAN ON THE TWENTY DOLLAR NOTES, please click on the book title on my website or visit the Flying Doctor website.
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I thought that Irish betting shop that paid out a million a few weeks prematurely to people who bet on a Clinton win were fools. A week is a long time in politics and nobody can make a confident prediction until the last week of an election. Scandals can surface at any time, and a candidate can even drop dead. There is also an old political adage that you don’t insult the voters, which Clinton did with her deplorables comment. Every side has deplorables voting for them to some extent. But the biggest lesson came from Queensland about 30 years ago when the ‘experts’ and the media predicted the demise of Bjelke-Petersen. Labor had increased their vote, but only in the seats they already held. The media just relied on phone polling and the like. The National Party knew otherwise, they polled the swinging areas of the swinging seats. I’d say the American media made similar mistakes. I myself, as a member of Citizens Against Road Slaughter, targeted the swinging areas in Transport Minister Don Lane’s electorate of Merthyr with literature critical of him, and would have succeeded if I hadn’t run out of literature. I also targeted the swinging areas of Bill Knox’s electorate when he said something that indicated he was double-crossing us. They didn’t lose that time, but I had set the scene for them losing the next time by eroding their support. Everybody was surprised when Bill Knox lost his seat the next election, except me.
Hi E, life IS Interesting is’nt it?!! Without the character’s we Love, Dislike or wish would Evaporate because they don’t know when their time is past! How Dull it would be without the Trumps of our time…actually methinks a Business Mind like his JUST MIGHT achieve Some Good. Exactly what is needed Here ! Told you before WE Need to CLONE YOU!!! PLEASE. respect Always G.
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Makes one think eh?
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A beautiful moment for you ..Enjoy..Gabrielle D.
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As usual I enjoyed reading your insightful analysis Everald. I have a few points to make.
Firstly, it will be interesting to see the quality of the people that the new President surrounds himself with. If he chooses a group of ‘yes’ men and women then the world has a problem going forward. However, if he selects good people with a proven track record in administration, excellent technical knowledge and the courage to make decisions or recommend solutions to Trump without fear or favour, and they are supported, then we can look forward to some innovative policy and outcomes.
Unfortunately, as Trump is so overtly egocentric, he may not take kindly to advice that differs from his views. His reaction could then be to dismiss those that disagree with him and the vacuum will be filled by more ‘yes’ men and women who understand the ground rules; meaning that to not toe the line means the end of all career ambitions with the new government. This is how the seeds of dictatorship are born.
My prediction is that as Trump is such a flawed individual, and nacissistic to boot, that he will only last four years. He was able to tap into the American mantra of ‘Make America Great Again’ because this is what all Americans are taught at school; namely ‘America is the greatest country on earth’. To have this belief shattered in so many different ways–loss in wars overseas, economic decline in middle America, black versus white, etc, etc it is no wonder that so many Americans yearn for the return of the good old days. In many ways, and now with the value of hindsight, the election result was almost inevitable.
It would not surprise me if the Democrats really get organised for 2020, tap into the youth vote and try to recapture middle America. Their choice of candidate will be so very important but a highly intelligent Kennedy-type man or woman will be essential for them to succeed if they are to recapture the American dream. Trump did this in the terms described above but that was looking backwards to past glories along with his trickle down economics. It was not looking forward to that light on the hill with a sound underpinning social policy agenda, and that will be his undoing. The Trump experiment will fail, but America will have learnt a most valuable but unfortunate costly lesson.
Well said Everald. Clinton did not promise much in remedial action on any front and people just thought if we vote for her it will be same again as Obama, who did very little, Obama care a real disaster. . All flash and bluster with her performing artists. I did not appreciate a Beyoncé bare butt. Many of the people who came to watch did not have jobs and did not know who the stars were as they could never afford the tickets. Trump appears to be employing some of the best advisers. Climate Change well Australias contribution is around 2% with the worst being China/India/USA. The $200 Mil given in Paris would be better spent housing our homeless. Some one had to stop all the Mexicans taking the Americans jobs. We should follow, cut out 457s et al Pakistani visitors visas they are taking the jobs of Aussie trucking contractors. Free Trade Agreements – I don’t believe they do us any good. We could grow the best produce non gmo in the world clean green however rather than sell it cheap cheap cheap we should get best prices for it keeping farmers alive. We too need to befriend Putin & Russia we have a huge trade market there with 68 mil pop and in snow 9 months a year. I believe we should be using 1 of the two Trillion dollars in the future fund to build infrastructure and give jobs, we need 2 million jobs right now. Aussies too are looking for …. a person/party to rise from the ashes of lib/lab/grn like a Pheonix. Hanson …. maybe, Xenaphon ….not in my book as he wants to let in thousands more migrants without a hope of getting a job, as I see it, just languishing on Centrelink payments like too many others. I hope President Trump frees Julian Assange.
Great insight as always thanks Everald. PERHAPS! an experienced business negotiator who is not ging to be only interested in his own bottom line but who seeks the glory of the top job? for his ego state MAY just prove a point or two? One can only hope..His kids do have skills and qualifications I think so they offer strong support…We WILL see! Regards Gabrielle.
Dear Everald, sharp analysis and great thoughts, as ever! Wish we had an Everald Compton in Germany as well … Best regards from, Düsseldorf, Yours, Erik
Hi Everald, I very much appreciate your insights. I share your optimism about our youth. Mankind has always denigrated youth – it can be found in the Bible, in Shakespeare and even in supporters posts on your web page! There should be more collaboration – elders willing to share experience and young people willing to listen. I think some of the backlash in the US represents the last gasp of white male privilege. I heard both men and women say that the President should be male. Hillary didn’t look like a president – didn’t have the stamina. Of course she was always a bad candidate – in politics there should be no sense of “Born to rule” as in the Clintons and the Bushs. Trump is already back pedaling on his election statements but most of his supporters will fade away and not bother holding him to account. They believe they have done their job. Forgetting about government for the next 3 years they can then look around for someone who is angry just like them and who has good slogans and simplistic answers. It is decidedly uncool to think about politics. Most people never do. If you want to be part of the in crowd you congratulate each other about feeling bored with politics and repudiate people who are politically correct. Unfortunately I think most young people want to be part of the in crowd too. But, just maybe climate change, unaffordable housing and the prospect of future debt might sir them out of their reverie.
Cheers
Liz
Everald â as always a masterly summary and better than most media. And surprise â I agree with most of your descriptions â except one! Unlike you I have little faith in leaving it to the young. Not because I rate them unintelligent or thoughtless or idle but because unfortunately â at least in Australia â our young arenât politically interested, have no sense of the geo-political issues weâre facing into and are very uninterested in the political scene. Perhaps more importantly their lack of history blinds them to the threats facing us and even more sadly their lack of respect for people, doing the right thing, honouring their obligations and so on is pretty frightening. IN Coles few of them stood silent for 1â for instance. Their own issues and commitments occupy them most and a sort of self-indulgence towards gratification and lack of self âdiscipline is a steadfast search on t heir social media and other screens.
Incidentally I see Keating is decidedly anti your mate âSWAN! Cheers and respectfully – carlo
Carlo Bongarzoni
Carlo Bongarzoni Associates P/L
9 Russell Street
Clontarf NSW 2093
T/F 9948 8975; 0410 335 523
bongarzoni@optusnet.com.au
Hi Everald.
Most people would hope that Trump succeeds in “Making America great again” because it is in all our interests that he does. But most people would also hope that he junks many of his more outlandish polices.
Who would you suggest are “the goods guys” in our parliament?
I would suggest Christian Porter and Angas Taylor from the Libs and possibly Richard Marles from Labor, are names that immediately come to mind.
The fact that most on the Labor side come through the union movement wipes them automatically as far as I am concerned.
Hi how right you are. It will be interesting times from here on but exciting too Brian
Sent from my iPhone Brian Peat 0424561895
REPORTS OF AUSTRALIAN LEVEL OF PROFITABILITY OR PROSPERITY FROM THE EXPORT OF LIQUID NATURAL GAS, – DEFER ANY IMMEDIATE BENEFIT FOR AUSTRALIA – SO MUCH FOR ANY RELIANCE ON THIS ISSUE TO REPAIR UNECONOMICAL AUSTRALIA. ? ? – Forecasts indicate a possible result in TWENTY YEARS future ! ! . – UNDER PERFORMING NATIONAL Managers responsible for this OUTCOME, – SHOULD RESIGN. – I wish to comment on the Current Situation relating to DONALD TRUMP. – It has been public, THAT THIS INDIVIDUAL, PURCHASED AND “PAID FOR” all cost, charges and Expenses associated with this Campaign. – At no Time would he be OBLIGATED TO represent the vicarious interests of (1) Lobbyists (2) Donors (3) Factions or (4) Cronyism, in simple terms, his Election Victory is the consequence of THE CONTRACT that he verbally made to those constituents, WHO, AT HIS OWN EXPENSE, BELIEVED HIM ! . – OH ! What a wonderful situation it would be, – IF ALL POLITICAL CONTENDERS WOULD BE OBLIGATED TO LEAVE THE TAX PAYER PURSE ALONE, and pedal their unproven Policies by using this Self Financed Method, and stating THEIR CONTRACT to those Electors at the same Time. – This arrangement would be VERY BENEFICIAL to the Electorate by Large, In the event of the Contender failing to be able to meet the TERMS OF HIS Contract stated, – THE PUBLIC should not be at a Loss of even – One Dollar!