The Australian Election of 2016 will result in a Hung Parliament in both Houses.
This political deadlock will be profound, significant and long term, causing a long awaited upheaval in the structure of political parties.
A majority of the population will be horrified with this event, but a sizeable minority will welcome it as it will give democracy a genuine chance of working effectively.
The situation with the current election is that voters look at the Coalition and the ALP and think of them as the political equivalent of Coles and Woolworths, doing their best to manipulate humanity and lock us all into their tiny world of endless power struggles that have little to do with the enhancement of humanity.
Many Aussies are now looking for the political equivalent of Aldi and hope that the Greens, Xenophon or Independents may become an Aldi or another business that looks like it may be an honest disrupter.
Indeed, we are rapidly moving forward to a day when most voters will not be rusted on to a major party. When I grew up in the 1930’s only 10% were not locked in to left or right. Now, this number is at least one third and growing. If it continues in this way, and I reckon it will, we will soon reach a point where Australia will never again have a majority government and this will be a many splendoured thing.
The question is will this be all that bad?
The first step in answering this question is to remember that, for the first decade after Federation in 1901, Australia did not have a majority government. We had six Prime Ministers, two of whom actually served twice, thus making eight leadership changes. Political Parties were small and plentiful and the Senate was hopelessly fragmented.
Nevertheless, in those ten years, some of the most important and long lasting legislation in the history of the nation was passed and Australians enjoyed reasonable prosperity.
It happened because Barton, Deakin, Watson, Reid, Fisher and Cook were not ideologues, treated one another with civility and met regularly to agree on what would go through the Parliament and what would be tossed in the dustbins. It was a world of intelligent compromise and it made most voters feel that their views got a good go from time to time. It was a beautiful exercise in democracy and we desperately need it now in our troubled world of 2016.
Can we achieve it again? The answer is Yes.
My forecast for 2 July 2016 is that Independents will do well in the House of Representatives. Windsor, Oakshott, McGowan, Wilkie and Katter will win and a relatively unknown Independent could beat Abbott. A former WA Liberal MP could exact revenge on his old Party.
Xenophon will win at least two seats in South Australia and the Greens will retain Melbourne while picking up two more seats in Victoria and one in NSW.
This means that there could be twelve on the cross benches in the Reps – a beautiful situation.
In the Senate, the Greens will get two seats in every state and Xenophon will get four, three of whom will be in South Australia. Hanson and Lambie will win and Hinch has a good chance in Victoria. This will make it 19 for a Prime Minister to negotiate with.
This will be a humiliation for Malcolm Turnbull as his plan to reform the Senate will have failed dramatically and his calling of a double dissolution over a trifling piece of Union bashing legislation will have been a disaster.
So, who can best govern Australia by bringing these disparate groups together.
Will it be Shorten or Turnbull?
I reckon it will be neither.
Their Parties will blame them for the mess and reach out in hope to find someone who is an extraordinary leader, gifted in ignoring political, social, economic, religious and moral ideologies. This choice is the ultimate decision of the Election of 2016 and the Governor General may have to make it.
This is not a sad situation to be in as it will be the first days of a new era of revolutionary democracy.
Politicians themselves only have themselves to blame. They have caused voters to have a gutful of the Establishment after years of broken promises, childish spin and outdated ideologies of closed minds.
Revenge is nigh.
May it be peaceful.
The gates are wide open for a new Abraham Lincoln to step forward.
Yours at Large
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