ELECTION 2022 – AFTERMATH

Anthony Albanese has been sworn in as the 31st Prime Minister of Australia.

He does not pretend to be a charismatic leader, but I know him well enough to say he is a reliable administrator and proven negotiator who will not run away from any of the huge challenges that now face Australia. I wish him well and, like you, will hold him accountable if he fails to implement the mandate for which he sought approval during the election.

I particularly welcome Jim Chalmers as Treasurer. I have known him for a long time and am certain that he will be a safe custodian of our money and an innovative reformer of the nation’s financial and taxation systems. Let me say that he is as talented a political leader as I have met in 65 years of visiting the Australian Parliament.

Three facts will be noted by the Albanese Government.

*Their primary vote was their lowest, percentage wise, in 110 years. Actually lower than Bill Shorten received in 2019.

*They lost a ‘safe’ seat in their heartland.

*They did not win a single extra seat from the LNP in Queensland. Their electoral impact there were nil.

The ALP will be wise to address this prior to Election 2025.

The so called TEALS have arrived on the political scene as Independents in significant numbers and are here to stay. The ones I know are highly intelligent, committed and motivated. They will strive to cement their place in the Parliament with positive negotiations and should be reelected many times, also increasing their numbers. They will progressively reduce the power of major parties and this will be good for democracy in Australia.

Greens have enjoyed a resurgence in the House of Representatives and in the Senate where they will hold the balance of power. They are a more pragmatic and balanced Party than they were under their founder Bob Brown and will continue to grow in strength and influence due to their superior policies on climate change which have captivated younger voters.

The Liberals are in their death throws.

In terms of seats won, they had their worst election result in 70 years and they suffered a significant drop in their % of primary vote.

It is highly likely they will split into two parties.

The right wing are so extremist they cannot possibly continue to call themselves Liberals without displaying utter hypocrisy.

The moderates have been decimated by the Teals and some of those who did survive will probably walk out of their Party and sit as a group on the crossbenches where their neighbours will be the Teals.

May I also say that Josh Frydenberg is a valued friend of long standing, introduced to me by our mutual friend, Sir Zelman Cowen, long before Josh went into Parliament. While I warmly welcome so many Independents into the Parliament, I am sad that Josh was a casualty. He is an honest and decent conservative whose presence will be missed.

The Nationals did not lose a seat, which is quite extraordinary, but the childish negativity of Barnaby Joyce did cause moderate conservative voters in cities to vote for Teals. They have nothing to gain by renewing a Coalition with the Liberals as even their combined numbers will still be insignificant in the Parliament. To survive, they need to establish their own clear identity.

Clive Palmer spent huge sums of money in political advertising in both Election 2019 and Election 2022 and was rejected by voters on both occasions. Despite his political failure, the Australian Electoral Commission must request that legislation be passed by Parliament to make it illegal for any person or entity to attempt to buy an election.

The political star of Pauline Hanson is quietly fading. Few will weep.

So, how will all of this pan out in actuality for the people of Australia.

I have always held the view that no government should stay in power for more than three terms, certainly no more than a decade. A long term government usually gets tired and runs out of ideas and almost certainly needs a clean out by then. So, our change of government right now is a good thing for next decade, but no longer.

Labor has won only one third of the elections held since Federation in 1901. Conservatives have consistently been able to convince voters than the ALP are big spenders who will lose their money. However, Albanese is not going to allow himself and his Party to be tarred with that brush this time and then be tossed out after just one term. He will be careful and responsible.

In deciding their own fate, the Liberals will do well to recall Menzies speech when he created the Liberal Party in 1943. I heard it on ABC Radio at the time. I was just 12 years old. He said,

‘I have called my new Party the Liberals as we are not a Conservative Party. Our ideology is in the political centre.’

If the current Liberals don’t reclaim the initial ground staked out by Menzies, they may find that Albanese decides to move there in what for him and his party would be a very smart political move.

All is well for now.

Albo deserves a fair go. If he fails to deliver, we will have the chance to kick him out in 2025. This is our democratic right.

Scomo is finished and it is possible that the laws of the land will hold him accountable for some undemocratic and unethical behavior. Nevertheless, his miracle victory in the election of 2019 was the most spectacular of my lifetime.

Cheers

Everald

Enjoy a good read about the creation of the nation of Australia in 1901 and join me in a crusade to improve our Constitution in a new world of 120 years later.

Buy my book by visiting its website https://dinnerwiththefoundingfathers.com

POLITICAL PARTIES WILL DIE ON SATURDAY

Election 2022 will result in Australians choosing a minority ALP Government.

Many Independents will be elected and the Greens will enhance their numbers.

ALP will win some seats and lose others, leaving them short of a majority.

The cross bench will guarantee supply and undertake not to move motions of no confidence, while honouring key ALP Election commitments & requesting that legislation be passed that implement their own commitments in vital areas such as climate, housing, health, longevity, culture etc.

It will create a long overdue and stable government that achieves progress and prosperity with justice and compassion.

The Coalition will be decimated and divided and in need of total reform as they have self destructed.

The remnants of the Liberal Party will break up, with the Pentecostals separating from the Moderates. The National Party, having lost seats, will have a bitter leadership turmoil. Their extreme right will join with the Pentecostals.

The Palmer and Hanson parties will be reduced to insignificance.

The ALP will be forced to reform itself after two failed campaigns under Shorten and Albanese but they should be able to achieve it without internal blood letting if they have the will to do so.

The Greens have enjoyed a significant resurgence due to their powerful climate change policy which has hugely appealed to Under 30 voters. They have a real chance to win 3 new seats in Brisbane ( Ryan, Griffith and Brisbane), plus Richmond in NSW and Macnamara in Victoria while holding Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.

Independents will deliver a killer blow to the major parties which is why I am personally working hard as a volunteer on the campaign for my friends – Suzie Holt in Groom (Toowoomba) and Kate Hook in Calare (Orange/Bathurst) who are non-political independents of genuine quality.

Tracking this across the continent, the Liberals will lose these seats to them –

Curtin in Western Australia

Boothby in South Australia

Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria.

Hume, Wentworth, North Sydney, Mackellar & Warringah in NSW

Groom in Queensland.

The Nationals will suffer defeats in –

Hinkler in Queensland,

Page, Cowper & Calare in NSW

Nicholls in Victoria

The Palmer Party will lose Hughes to an Independent and put an end to Craig Kelly’s less than illustrious parliamentary career.

The ALP will lose Fowler in NSW to an Independent. This is the seat where Kenneally was arrogantly parachuted in as candidate against hostile opposition from local ALP.

Existing crossbenchers Haines, Bandt, Wilkie, Sharkie, Steggall and Katter will hold their seats.

ALP will win 6 seats from Liberals but lose 3 as outlined above.

The Greens may get to hold the balance in the Senate while former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman, Rugby legend David Pocock and author Jane Caro are on track to win Senate seats as well. Additionally, my hope is that Senator Rex Patrick will hold his seat in South Australia as he has proved to be a very responsible parliamentarian.

I cannot see Pauline Hanson holding her Senate seat as her star is fading and it I am certain that Clive Palmer will disappear, hopefully forever.

This means that, to have a future, the major parties must reform or die. As they have always rejected reform, it may be the latter.

But, we will have a Parliament where some deadwood has been cleaned out and MP’s of stature will have replaced them.

In this situation, the Governor General will have huge power.

The Constitution does not recognise political parties, nor does it recognise Prime Ministers. I simply says,

‘The Governor General will appoint Ministers’.

Usually, he invites the Leader of the winning party to advise him as to who should become Ministers, but where there is no winner, the power lies entirely with him.

He will seek advice from the Independents and Greens as to whom they wish to be appointed as Prime Minister. They could nominate someone who is not the leader of a Party and the GG will have total power to invite that person to form a government and obtain a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives without asking Parties for approval.

The Independents in their first action of political power, will probably nominate either Jim Chalmers or Tanya Plibersek.

So, why have we reached this point where politics is at its lowest ebb of my lifetime. Indeed, a huge percentage of voters rank it as the lowest of the low?

The cause is that political parties on both right and left are tightly controlled by small groups of power brokers who produce privileges for elite people, while arrogantly insisting that it is all really ultra democratic.

In addition, the less than decent behavior, lack of skills of government and inability to speak the truth as shown by most parliamentarians, simply switches off voters, filling them with disgust.

Its time for all of us to aspire to have a Parliament we can respect and admire for they way it creates a fair and cohesive society.

My hope is that the political carnage that occurs as votes are counted on Saturday evening will begin an era of progressive and enlightened social and economic advancement for all Australians.

This can only be achieved if Australia has a Prime Minister who is neither Scomo nor Albo.

Yours in independence

Everald Compton AO

PS. Be inspired by the vision of the political leaders who founded the new nation of Australia in 1901.

Read my book DINNER WITH THE FOUNDING FATHERS.

Order it on my website https://www.everaldcompton.com

NO SAFE SEATS

We have reached a huge watershed in Australian political history.

There is now no Member of the House of Representatives in the Australian Parliament who holds a safe seat, not one, no matter what their current majority may be, not even Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten.

And neither the Coalition nor the ALP can be certain of getting more than one Senate candidate over the line in any State. Their number two Senate candidates cannot be confident of getting the required quota. And I joke not.

Some, quite wrongly, will see this as a terrible catastrophe that will ensure huge a period of very unstable government.

However, it is far more likely to provide a refreshing change in which the political establishment will self destruct and never again be able to return to its inefficient complacency and its inability to be accountable.

Above all, it shows that Australian voters have had a massive gutful of bad government and blame it on all the major parties, without exception.

Incredibly, most politicians are blithely unaware of their very uncertain future and need to be blasted into recognition by getting a brutal dose of acute voter anger.

How have we reached this incredible political crisis? Continue reading “NO SAFE SEATS”

THE ADANI ELECTION

Queenslanders go to the polls on Saturday, 25 November, to elect a State Government.

Ostensibly, it is a contest between Annastacia Palaszczuk and Tim Nicholls as to who will be Premier of the Queensland Parliament,

It is absolutely not.

The battle is about whether or not one of the largest coal mines in the world will be opened in the Galilee Basin of Queensland and send its coal to India via the Barrier Reef.

This creates a complicated political situation as both Palaszczuk and Nicholls strongly back the opening of the mine, as does the likely holder of the balance of power, Pauline Hanson and her competitor for that role – Robbie Katter.

One would think that this would place the Adani mine in the safest of political positions, but it does not. It is an issue that will dominate the headlines until voting day as Adani protesters turn up to disrupt every political meeting, particularly those of the Premier.

Its chief beneficiary will be the Greens who have never before prospered in Queensland.

They will gain the balance of power and deny Hanson her dream. Continue reading “THE ADANI ELECTION”

EVERALD’s ELECTION EDICT

We are two weeks into the 2016 Australian Election and I have waited in vain to hear any policies of vision and conviction from either the Coalition, the Opposition or the Greens that will stir my passion as a proud Australian who wants to build and expand the quality of our nation.

Sadly, I have stared at a barren waste.

Our politicians have missed the heart beat of the nation. They are talking to the old fashioned electorate of yesteryear that no long exists. Continue reading “EVERALD’s ELECTION EDICT”

For whom the bell tolls – The last days of Rudd or Abbott or both.

Saturday will be a time of great personal relief for the vast majority of Australian voters. After the most painful and boring election of a lifetime, we will have made the decision that most of us would prefer not to make.

Is Abbott about to achieve his dream of becoming Australia’s Prime Minister, or will Rudd pull-off what will be recorded as a political miracle? The making of this sad choice will enable us to experience the profound relief we cherish when we get-up after sitting for a long time on a really nasty bit of prickly pear. You feel a hell of a lot better, but you know also that you will have a sore backside for a long time thereafter.

It is not an exaggeration to say that I have never before seen Australians so disgusted with politics, or so disillusioned with the choice that political parties have forced upon us by presenting us with leaders who inspire such little confidence. But, there is not much we can do about it right now, and it is our democratic responsibility to ensure that whoever wins is given a fair go at trying to give positive and sustainable leadership to Australia.

So, let us look for a few moments at the key figures in this eminently forgettable election:

Continue reading “For whom the bell tolls – The last days of Rudd or Abbott or both.”

The Election of a Lifetime

Who will win power in September?

A year ago Tony Abbott was an unbackable favourite to become Prime Minister of Australia at the 2013 Federal Election. Only Black Caviar had shorter odds. Most punters reckoned that Julia Gillard would lead her party to absolute oblivion, irreparably damaging the ALP brand in the process.

Now, although the Coalition is still clearly in front, it is a genuinely contestable election that may yet provide the biggest political upset in our nation’s history. Continue reading “The Election of a Lifetime”

Join the debate on a Northern Food Bowl, a Referendum, Voter Intentions and Boat People

 I note with considerable interest that the creation of a food bowl in Northern Australia is now very much on the political and business agenda, particularly as there are persistent reports of interest from Chinese corporations in exploring the prospects of investment in our agricultural industries. Continue reading “Join the debate on a Northern Food Bowl, a Referendum, Voter Intentions and Boat People”