The Australian Election of 2016 will result in a Hung Parliament in both Houses.
This political deadlock will be profound, significant and long term, causing a long awaited upheaval in the structure of political parties.
A majority of the population will be horrified with this event, but a sizeable minority will welcome it as it will give democracy a genuine chance of working effectively.
The situation with the current election is that voters look at the Coalition and the ALP and think of them as the political equivalent of Coles and Woolworths, doing their best to manipulate humanity and lock us all into their tiny world of endless power struggles that have little to do with the enhancement of humanity.
Many Aussies are now looking for the political equivalent of Aldi and hope that the Greens, Xenophon or Independents may become an Aldi or another business that looks like it may be an honest disrupter.
Indeed, we are rapidly moving forward to a day when most voters will not be rusted on to a major party. When I grew up in the 1930’s only 10% were not locked in to left or right. Now, this number is at least one third and growing. If it continues in this way, and I reckon it will, we will soon reach a point where Australia will never again have a majority government and this will be a many splendoured thing.
The question is will this be all that bad?
The first step in answering this question is to remember that, for the first decade after Federation in 1901, Australia did not have a majority government. We had six Prime Ministers, two of whom actually served twice, thus making eight leadership changes. Political Parties were small and plentiful and the Senate was hopelessly fragmented.
Nevertheless, in those ten years, some of the most important and long lasting legislation in the history of the nation was passed and Australians enjoyed reasonable prosperity.
It happened because Barton, Deakin, Watson, Reid, Fisher and Cook were not ideologues, treated one another with civility and met regularly to agree on what would go through the Parliament and what would be tossed in the dustbins. It was a world of intelligent compromise and it made most voters feel that their views got a good go from time to time. It was a beautiful exercise in democracy and we desperately need it now in our troubled world of 2016.
Can we achieve it again? The answer is Yes.
My forecast for 2 July 2016 is that Independents will do well in the House of Representatives. Windsor, Oakshott, McGowan, Wilkie and Katter will win and a relatively unknown Independent could beat Abbott. A former WA Liberal MP could exact revenge on his old Party.
Xenophon will win at least two seats in South Australia and the Greens will retain Melbourne while picking up two more seats in Victoria and one in NSW.
This means that there could be twelve on the cross benches in the Reps – a beautiful situation.
In the Senate, the Greens will get two seats in every state and Xenophon will get four, three of whom will be in South Australia. Hanson and Lambie will win and Hinch has a good chance in Victoria. This will make it 19 for a Prime Minister to negotiate with.
This will be a humiliation for Malcolm Turnbull as his plan to reform the Senate will have failed dramatically and his calling of a double dissolution over a trifling piece of Union bashing legislation will have been a disaster.
So, who can best govern Australia by bringing these disparate groups together.
Will it be Shorten or Turnbull?
I reckon it will be neither.
Their Parties will blame them for the mess and reach out in hope to find someone who is an extraordinary leader, gifted in ignoring political, social, economic, religious and moral ideologies. This choice is the ultimate decision of the Election of 2016 and the Governor General may have to make it.
This is not a sad situation to be in as it will be the first days of a new era of revolutionary democracy.
Politicians themselves only have themselves to blame. They have caused voters to have a gutful of the Establishment after years of broken promises, childish spin and outdated ideologies of closed minds.
Revenge is nigh.
May it be peaceful.
The gates are wide open for a new Abraham Lincoln to step forward.
Yours at Large
Everald Compton
If you would like to buy my book The Man on the Twenty Dollar Notes, please go to my website everaldcompton.com
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Time to TAX the Churches ? Too many preaching still, to go populate the world. This was OK 2,000 years ago but some poor countries are populating in the extreme. Some recently have abolished family planning so more children born to abuse sexual and factory work. At least, they must help pay for their policies and not expect Foreign Aid to supply, especially when we have our own homeless
Heather SO RIGHT.!! Nearly ALL poverty stricken Nations seem to depict their POVERTY with so many Photos showing the plight of poor little kids..HOW to fix? I wish I knew! EDUCATE WOMEN
would seem the ONLY WAY but how many KIDS SUFFER until that time? I feel SHAMED and SO
USELESS…Will it reach the point of Compulsory Sterilization for ENOUGH FOOD for Survival?
SHUDDER!! BUT perhaps an ULTIMATE CHOICE for their LEADERS?????????Cannot believe that is HOW I REACT to the SENSELESS Proliferation of KIDS they CANNOT FEED…It can only
worsen.for so many…SO SAD.
Further to my comments, above, Everald, and sorry to be appearing to ‘hog the show’ —as you know, I have been trying to garner support re the proposed INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON HEALTH PREVENTIONS FOR WIDE BAY, IN 2017—to develop a template to help stricken regions like this one, to deal with the appalling litany of factors that are tearing down the health of families, locally.—especially the children.—and I am very well aware that I will be opening a veritable ‘can of worms’ in the process, involving business interests.
But I know what I see, as a dedicated, veteran Supply Teacher, across this region.
.
In the last two weeks I have been looking at the amazing record of a Spanish-Canadian troubadour, Raffi Couvkian,who has tapped into a much stronger ‘well of inspiration’, in founding THE CHILD HONORING CENTER IN CANADA, with its truly amazing philosophy.
In a sentence, he has found a huge amount of support for his belief that ALL levels of government need to deliberate on all proposed legislation from the perspective of the vulnerable, kindy child, before passing it into law.
IF OUR AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT WOULD ADOPT THIS NOBLE ETHIC, THEN THE FUTURE OF OUR CHILDREN WOULD BE ASSURED, AND THE CURRENT ATROPHY WOULD BE OVERCOME, AS A NEW TIDE OF ENERGY RE-INVIGORATED OUR CIVIC LEADERS.
I believe that only such pre-eminent moral, world leaders, such as Pope Francis, The Dalai Lama, Sir Richard Branson and Jamie Oliver, will be able to challenge the ‘staus quo’ and persuade our own leaders to provide a lead, as courageous independent-thinkers.
Sadly, after a month of effort, I have hit a ‘wall’ apparently, unable to get past various ‘minders’—as was the case when I proposed a world-wide network of schools and colleges to support thousands of communities who lost so many and so much after the terrible tsunamis of 26.12.2004—Thank God other, inspired individuals were able to be successful, after my late wife, Dorothy, and I failed to get the then-Ambassador for relief, former US President, Mr. Bill Clinton, engaged.
ANY POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO THE IMPASSE, MY FRIEND, PAM, AND I, ARE EXPERIENCING, WOULD BE MOST WELCOME—who knows our ‘pollies’ could have their visions enlarged in the process, and not be so hide-bound by party rules and regulations !!
Thanks so much for your time and energy.
With kind regards,
Kevin.
Kevin, The CAN of WORMS ..HAS to be OPENED! WORMS devour WASTE and until Children are EITHER SAFE/PROTECTED or NOT CREATED just to experience HORROR/ CARING people such as Yourselves MUST KEEP ON PROTESTING! PLEASE.
THANK YOU for your heartening support.
I may have given the impression of being rather timid about this proposal, but underneath I have a steely resolve, and Everald has been most encouraging as well.
It is early days as yet, but I am hoping to find one influential backer from outside this Wide Bay area, for NOT ONE person has yet, as it were, ‘put their head above the edge of the trench’, to buck the seemingly entrenched conservatism/apathy of the region—as though one must be living here for many years, in order to have any ideas and energy to share—or even the RIGHT TO express same !
Kind regards, Kevin.
Wed 22 Jun 2016
Hi, Everald
I enjoy reading your articles, and will follow the election results this year to see if they work out as you suggest.
In my ‘previous life’ I was a Primary school Principal for 42 years, and finding money for projects in Schools was always a challenge.
I have also been a member of Lions Clubs International (LCI) for 49 years.
Currently I am a Director (18 years) and Secretary (15 years) of Lions Camp Duckadang near Linville.
Fortunately, there have been opportunities to obtain funding through the QG Gambling Community Benefit Fund and the LCI Foundation.
I’ve had quite a few successes, but know there are other ‘untouched’ sources such as philanthropic organisations.
So I have been into ‘fundraising’ for many years.
I know your background was in fundraising, and that you published several books.
However, I have not been able to find them in Council libraries.
Perhaps there are one or two which you would recommend, and can direct me to a publisher.
Like you, I await some progress on the Inland Rail Project.
I cannot believe that politicians who are supposed to have Australia’s future at heart, demonstrate a complete lack any vision.
Best wishes and thanks.
Peter J Boge
Hello Everald,
Would like to organise a time for you to talk to Graham about this latest release of yours. I have a spot available at 10 tomorrow for a pre-record or 11.35 for a live to air tomorrow or Thursday. Any of these suit?
Col
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Hi Everald
I usually agree with your thoughts, but you’ve lost me on this one. The standard of politicians we have in this country means we will never have a consensus on any move forward. Keating described the Senate accurately, look at the mess the past nine years have been, where we elect a government who then spend countless weeks/months/years trying to get anything done. I see otherwise intelligent people voting for a major party in the Reps and some minor numpty in the Senate, then whinging that nothing can get done. If you want government, vote the same in both houses, and let the winner get on with the job.
Thanks Everald â an interesting forecast! But one I hope doesnât come to pass. Of course I agree entirely with your description of current leaders and politicians but the new crop of independents are nothing like the leaders of the past that you quote on â nor is the political environment today anything like those earlier times. We need first a new party that believes in aspirations and cuts across traditional left and right which have no real meaning any more except that the first is all about big government spending and making decisions for us and enlarging the dependency mentality. The so-called Liberals have little idea what that means. Any party so dependent on the spent and beyond the law trade union movement that no longer represents workers is stricken. The Liberals have no credible today substance either. Hawke, Keating and Howard have been the only leaders seen in recent times and they were very different times. Weâre little different to other Western countries really! People are fed up with the failures of their political systems and politicians. Hence Trump, Brexit and a seeking EU Titanic. And Everald in your support for independents â mostly in the upper house â arenât you in fact reinforcing the misuse of the Senate? Surely it was only meant to be a House of Review â not a buffer to all change unless on their grounds.
Of course I hope your forecast is wrong but regardless I have to choose between two very unattractive and meaningless offers. Personally I will vote against Abbott â not because heâs a nasty person, but because he so abysmally let us all down and would not listen and still isnât. He achieved a few things of substance but failed to capture the electorate.
Hope you and Helen are both well and although we may not agree on some things I still greatly respect your breadth of thought and ideas. I just wish youâd move away from left wing groups and be your exceptionally objective self who stood out from the rest so remarkably. My continuing regards carlo
Carlo Bongarzoni
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Everald, it will be fascinating to see how right you are on July 2. Frankly, I hope you are. I am longing for the time we get a PM who is there for the good of his country, and not himself or his party. Jeff Kennett put it nicely: ” People seek office for the sake of the office. They do not seek office to push an agenda for the country”.
Abraham Lincoln? Alas, unfortunately I left my nomination too late.
Cheers Bill Conry
Sorry Gabrielle if the word “Dorks” has upset you ,maybe it was too harsh ,however I have just made my postal vote and after seeing some of the nominees on the senate paper I COULD NOT HOLD BACK EXPRESSING MY THOUGHTS particularly after Everald has rightly assumed that it will be a hung parliament in both houses and that we will be relying on some of these people to make final decisions.I understand that the senate was never meant to be the ruler of this country.
We are ALL concerned state of Pol. in this Country, We need to THINK as you say.INDEPENDENTS SEEM? to have GENUINE MOTIVATION in running.Hope eternal!
O where O where are the Menzies,the Howards ,the Hawks and the Keetings gone ,bring them back because politics is so boring now and the poor old journos are flat out trying to find a story that will sell papers. It’s a shame that we will have to rely on independents to run this great country.
Well said Everald, spot on. Many countries are deeply unhappy our world is not moving forward. I believe those of the Senate you named above are quite diverse but I can see many will come together on serious issues. As a senior I do not like the bad attitude to seniors, only Lambie speaks of a pension rise of $50 per fortnight. At 28 out of 29 OECD our pension is second lowest and many live in poverty, many live in cars. Appears seniors blamed for everything yet all the while we see politicians going to court for more pension and largess dollars long after their retirement. Lavish pensions, snouting has to stop. Welfare for families with children, I’d like to see ALL welfare cut out after 2 or 3 children – you want more you pay. We need 3 million full time jobs, Dam the Northern Rivers as you et al say. VF Train start it to Bendigo so 1 million people can live/work buy a home under $400,000. Scandinavia has a wonderful health care system no private no public all one we need the same. Our Specialists charge some of the highest prices/gap fees in the world.
Yes! Yes! Yes! WORDS are coming from THINKERS EVERYWHERE..LETS USE THEIR BRAINS! COMBINE ..for the GOOD of ALL.
I see CHANCE for IMPROVING Conditions many..NEED HELP.est. Modest HOUSING for
non Super SENIORS and 40’s UP. REGIONAL:Aust….MANNUM 1st.!
Hi Gabrielle nice to see your compassion for others. I keep thinking we could house our homeless in shipping containers or the like they can be done nicely and cost around $35,000 each add 2 together for family. Garden surrounds with vegie gardens fruit trees mens shed, pool. Could be located in or near the bigger regional towns. Training or re-training facilities not far away. Age waits for no one and is your fate too. How quickly people forget it could be them (homeless) any time soon. We have so much social disconnect these days which adds to the medical and pbs costs. I got 3% super they now get 9.5%. My boss went broke I didn’t get any super.
Hi Heather. I too have known TOTAL Loss, not good. I’ve started “MI mini Mansions Australia” Many renters don’t realize they can still get 1st Home Owners Grant OR RENT in Regional Areas
Wherever YOU ARE there will be struggling Non Superannuated Seniors..Tell ALL that a movement to Build MODEST well appt.HOMES is HAPPENING!! 1st,HERE MANNUM on River Murray in South Australia,MORE as” MI mini Mansions Australia” Progresses and GROWS.
Investors looking MODEST RETURNS WANTED..!!!! .
THANK YOU, Everald, for your courageous, prophetic voice.
Your insightfulness is the perfect antidote for the moribund condition that Oz is in at this time.
May God raise up a spiritual, indigenous elder with the vision and courage to break the mould we are currently trapped in.
To be the PM we need who, to paraphrase Charles Dickens, …’does not have the ghost of Abbott-past’ to to contend with.
And after a term or two as PM, become the new Governor General, or even our first President !
YES! LESS TALK more ACTION.
All I can say Everald is I hope you are wrong and God save Australia. I personally hate the idea of this country being held to ransom by a senate which has and will comprise of a mob of dorks .I also hope and pray that one of the major parties wins the day Coop
ANONIMITY is COWARDICE at this or any other time…to call THEM DORKS..discounts YOUR OPIION in mine…THEY open doors & CLOSED MINDS..figure.
Agree 100%. regards Sue-Ellen Deacon